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Management in TherapeuticsMD (TXMD) has been appliance options and affairs shares one afterwards another. Accustomed an accessible cardinal catalyst, the timing seems abnormally suspicious. However, I accept these sales are pre-planned and annihilation added than noise. Investors should focus on execution. And aboriginal numbers are positive.

Form 14f (Mis) Filings - Hedge Funds - sec form 4 filings
Form 14f (Mis) Filings – Hedge Funds – sec form 4 filings | sec form 4 filings

Table 1: Breakdown of options due to expire 1/1/2019

Source: *SEC filings for Finizio, Milligan and Bernick in 2011; **SEC filings for Milligan and Bernick in 2014 (options are acclimatized and not sold)

Founders of the aggregation were provided with ~5 actor options back the aggregation was accustomed via a about-face alliance with AMHN Inc in 2011. These options are exercisable any time from 1/1/2012 to 1/1/2019. As apparent in Table 1, the founders still accept a cogent block of their options larboard unexercised for over seven years.

With these options expiring in the aing few months and an exercise amount of $0.1018, any rational being will exercise these options afore expiry. And that is absolutely what happened with assembly affairs a absolute of 1,050,800 shares at an boilerplate amount of $6.4 as of September 28, 2018. An generally disregarded detail is these sales accept been accomplished via a 10b5-1 trading plan.

A 10b5-1 trading plan is a action that allows assembly to align for shares to be awash at a predefined time, abundance and/or price. It is mainly acclimated as a apparatus to area off cabal trading accusations. Accustomed there is a cardinal of accessible catalysts, ambience such a plan is the best advantage to abstain cabal trading accusations.

Table 2: 10b5-1 projected cabal affairs timeline

EDGAR Filing Documents for 14-14-14 - sec form 4 filings
EDGAR Filing Documents for 14-14-14 – sec form 4 filings | sec form 4 filings

Source: SEC anatomy 4 sales filings and centralized bump for sales afterwards 26 September 2018 (expect to see official SEC filing by aing alive day)

Investors can get a glimpse of the anatomy of the 10b5-1 plan based on the contempo sales interval. As apparent in Table 2, I accept assembly will be affairs at accustomed intervals of 2 weeks to accomplishment off the year with all their options exercised. Probable affidavit abaft this sales anatomy are: 1) not flood the bazaar with shares as the boilerplate trading aggregate is low (~2.2 million) and 2) averaging out the affairs amount to anticipate any suspicion of cabal trading.

Recent accumulation cabal sales are acceptable a aftereffect of administration demography profits afterwards 7 continued years. Accustomed the aloft declared 10b5-1 trading plan, administration is absurd to be acting on abrogating cabal news. Additionally, cabal sales accept a poor clue almanac of admiration allotment (i.e. forecasting abrogating catalyst). Investors should accumulate their eyes on the prize, which is beheading by management. Aboriginal signs are assuming that beheading is on track.

Table 3: Intrarosa vs Imvexxy Aboriginal Sales Abstracts for 1 quarter

Source: AMAG’s Q3 2017 presentation deck, Q3 2017 transcript, Q3 banking address and TXMD’s September 2018 presentation accouter (*Imvexxy acquirement is a asperous appraisal based on 1.5x college advantage and ~2.2x tRX, Imvexxy’s tRX based on extrapolation of contempo ~293 tRX circadian uptake rate)

SEC Filings | iPe-Game Ventures Inc - sec form 4 filings
SEC Filings | iPe-Game Ventures Inc – sec form 4 filings | sec form 4 filings

As apparent in Table 3, Imvexxy is starting off with a able beforehand over Intrarosa admitting Intrarosa’s two weeks lead. Imvexxy’s barrage is hitting college calligraphy calculation and coverage, which translates to a abundant college top band number. The exhausted of TXMD’s sales force cannot be underestimated, extensive >50% added prescribers accustomed the aforementioned aggregation size.

Figure 1: Intrarosa vs Imvexxy (TX-004HR) Accord Sales Estimates ($ million)

Source: Morgan Stanley AMAG Research Report

However, aboriginal numbers are still far from expectations, which is barefaced accustomed the antecedent low coverage. Investors should abide to adviser calligraphy and advantage absorption in the aing few balance calls. 2019 will be the “prove it” year for the company. The aggregation will accept to accommodated or exhausted the ~$25 actor Imvexxy’s accord sales ambition (Refer to Amount 1) and ~$75 actor for TX-001HR.

Rejection of TX-001HR: Accustomed the contempo FDA labeling discussion, the anticipation for bounce charcoal actual low. Though investors should still be acquainted that there is a adventitious admitting alien for an FDA rejection. The aing 1-2 weeks will be a ytical aeon as commonly the FDA will affair feedbacks about 1 ages in beforehand of a complete acknowledgment letter.

Dilution risk: Dilution will consistently abide a abiding accident till the aggregation achieves able absolute banknote flow. The aggregation should accept ~$190 actor in banknote as of Q3^. And $75 actor of acclaim band can be fatigued aloft commercialization of TX-001HR. Assuming a $45 actor per division banknote burn^^ and ~$100 actor kept in reserve, absolute banknote should aftermost till 1H19. Dilution accident charcoal low in the abbreviate term.

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Academic Study Shows Differing Buy-Side Use Of SEC Data • Integrity .. | sec form 4 filings

Execution risk: The capital abbreviate apriorism for the aggregation acceptable revolves about execution. Shorts accept the aggregation is clumsy to assassinate accustomed the aerial accord estimates. Additionally, articles with acute profiles that entered aggressive markets (similar to Imvexxy’s situation) tend to accept blah sales. A prime archetype is Trulance from Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP). Though aboriginal abstracts do announce that beheading is on track.

In the market, there is a lot of babble like cabal sales and abrogating acknowledgment to absolute account (recent TX-001HR labeling discussion). One may calmly aberration these as signs of aiguille b price.

However, investors should not avoid the fundamentals which abide intact. Imvexxy’s beheading is on track. And TX-001HR, the alone FDA accustomed aggregate hormone therapy, will be accustomed and commercialized soon. With a bourgeois bump of $1.2 billion in aiguille sales and $12 amount target, cogent upside remains. Break long, break strong.

^Estimate based on $154.4 actor in banknote as of end Q2, $90 actor aloft in August and ~$50 actor banknote bake (based on a aggregation of $25 actor Q2 banknote burn, $20 anniversary for Annovera’a approval, ~$2 actor absorption payment).

^^ Based on a aggregation of $25 actor Q2 banknote burn, ~$4 actor absorption acquittal accustomed the cartoon of the $75 actor loan). Actual amount is acceptable lower accustomed acquirement bearing from Imvexxy and TX-001.

Disclosure: I am/we are continued TXMD.

I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose b is mentioned in this article.

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